Bitcoin SV is currently less than US$20 below its highest ever price of $245.31 achieved on 27 June 2019, according to the charts on CoinMarketCap. The record should be smashed today. Meanwhile, BTC is languishing at 46%, and BCH has collapsed to 6.7%, of their high points made in the heady days just before Xmas 2017. It's our time to shine.
tl/dr: Don't sell, do the math for a secured loan. About 4 years ago, I capitulated that I was never going to get out of debt. As soon as one debt was paid down, an emergency would arise, and debt would get loaded back up. After food, nearly all of my payments were to meet minimum debt servicing. Any extra would go to the highest interest rate. I looked to bitcoin, and realized it was money that couldn't be taken from me in the event I defaulted on these cards, mortgage, hospital bills, etc, which was a distinct possibility if my health failed for longer than a week or two. In a worst case scenario, if I had bitcoin, I would have some money no one could take from me in a judgment. So, I sacrificed even further, and completely hopeless about the debt, I stopped paying more than the monthly minimums. I started putting all left-over money aside into bitcoin, seeing its meteoric rise in 2017. It wasn't a lot at first, thankfully, because I got burned when the bubble popped in December 2017, so after that, I picked a number that I thought bitcoin was worth, and I kept buying it weekly anytime it was below $10k. When it was above $10k, I would put that money to pay down one of the debts more than its minimum. I initially had a plan to sell some of the bitcoin I'd been saving - at the end of 2020, I could sell what I'd bought through 2018 for the best capital gains rate, and then I'd pay my debt down even further. Now that we're nearing the end of 2020, I've been forced to re-evaluate my plan, because my outlook on money and bitcoin has completely changed over the past 3 years. In addition to building my bitcoin nest egg, I've managed to to pay off 1/4 of my debt, refinance my house at a lower rate, build up an emergency fund, continue to DCA into bitcoin, handle multiple emergencies that have arisen, and survived the Covid lockdown. These are things I never would have been able to do without a changed mindset. Bitcoin is currently 15% over my DCA, and if I were to re-peg a bitcoin value for the next 4 years, I'd put it's low value at $35k, with highs near $100k. So why would I sell, even to clear debt, when the future value is ridiculously more than any interest I'd save paying down debt? Even if I used the extra monthly liquidity from removing a debt, my DCA would still rise dramatically, because any more dips below $10k are becoming unlikely. So I did some math; if I secure a $5,000 loan with 1 bitcoin, at 10% interest over 12 months, that's $500 interest to pay. The credit card it's paying off would be $800 interest over the same time, with ~$200/month min. payments, and it would take much longer than 1 year at those payments. Even if I can't do more than $200/month payments on the bitcoin loan, the margin call at the end of the loan would be for less bitcoin than I had planned to sell at the end of this year, which wouldn't have paid off the loan fully to begin with. Much less bitcoin lost if the price rises anywhere near predictions. I have enough in my emergency funding to prevent a margin call before the loan is due (if bitcoin drops to $7500), and I have enough monthly cash flow now to make $500/month payments without further sacrifice. This way, I can spend my bitcoin and keep it, too. Roll that $500 total interest paid into the DCA, and it's barely anything at all. At the end of it, I've saved over $300 in C.C. interest, cleared more unsecured debt, and kept my bitcoin. This is the best of all worlds. Then I can do it again to take care of my last unsecured loan, and be debt free (except mortgage) without selling any of my capital. I can almost see the light at the end of the debt tunnel, guys. The math doesn't seem to work on the mortgage - not yet, anyway. But my plan-B has changed folks - so long as I'm capable of working, I'm not selling bitcoin, ever. When I can't work anymore, I hope to have enough bitcoin saved up to live off of, and soon I can get there even more quickly.
Under conditions like this, this will be YOUR fate in 2050 and beyond. And warning: This will piss people off, and it will not be Shangri-La. End of the Liberal Democratic System You still have the democratic system we call "Liberal Democracy" these days. AKA the delusion of being able to choose better candidates for your ruler. Unfortunately this is not the case any longer past 2050. Leaders are EXPLICITLY stated to be lifetime rule in all nations, and are literal emperors that will rule until they die. If they take off for whatever reason, they will inherit that seat with a trusted confidant aka their closest associate. Another trait of a liberal democracy is free speech, or your ability to question the government or the truth. This will again no longer exist. If you ever so deny the "[Democratic American Republic of Bananas] Holocaust of Chinese expats", "Trump is a tyrant who destroyed the United States" or "Covid is a deadly illness" fake facts, They will put you to a mental health check. If they screened you and/or it turns out that you are a "God Worshiper", "Conspiracy Theorist" or anyone who doesn't agree with Marxist Humanist ideology, you will be sent to a camp to be gassed and never come out again. Covid Measures You really don't think the Covid measures end after a year don't you? It's a non-existent and neverending crisis. Yes, Covid Policies will persist as soon as earth exists. And these policies are bound to DRIVE PEOPLE INSANE. Forced Masks, Social Distancing, Forced quarantines.......you named it. It's there. Bars, pubs, theme parks, public schools, small businesses etc will go to the way of the dodo. Save for big companies with extraorbitant prices selling foods, electronics or other necessities, nothing will exist around the streets. If you walk out of the streets without a mask, an enforcer will ambush and kill you. You can't even dine outside, you have to dine at home. Curfews are forced unless under certain conditions, save for right before announcing Covid pandemics or any other emergencies, such as terror attacks, UFO fear mongering, anarchists... Failure to comply will result in government hired fixers catching you to the camp and slitting your head with a mechanical blade. Oh and the only business bar big companies that are still around are... Which brings to the next point: Legalized Killing Gone were the days where killing is illegal. If they can make LGBT and Pedophilia legal and a lifestyle, why not make killing one as well? The new society is going to stress LOTS of people out, to the point that they will kill at the slightest of a whim. If bars, pubs, theme parks, small businesses etc got driven to extinction, what do you think their employees will do? They go out and KILL! Piss people off by the slightest bit such as telling to them "Covid is fake," then at the next day, civilian conduct patrols will come in and kill you. Killing, Harvesting organs, cannibalism etc...will become the DE FACTO lifestyle. And because of Covid policies, most businesses will not be able to survive the cataclysm. And those who cannot find a job or get their job destroyed cannot conduct an uprising against big elite. If you want to conduct a popular uprising, you NEED other elites to back you. So what do they do? They kill. You will see more killers, bodyguards, and cannibals than there are store clerks because it's the only thing that can make you money in the true new normal. Even civilians want nothing to do with it will go out and feast on the flesh of their close ones, not out of betrayal, but to survive. And you better off not go out during certain times of the day because there will be so many cannibals or mafia gangs patrolling the streets waiting to catch any unsuspecting bystander. Save for feral cannibals or angry civilians, there's also the risk of mafia and other conducted kill squads, such as the aforementioned civilian patrols, hired mercenary and hitman groups, as well as chefs (with many of them being former angry civilians). These things had long lost their humanity, and if you get reported to them, be it tax evasion, NEET, homeless, or even muttering "Hail Trump" or the Bible and got heard, you will be caught by these paid killers and die. The chefs are the worst because they are cannibals who will basically catch anyone and everyone to get them killed, for no reason. In certain places, infant mortality rate is expected to be 99% and the number of people who can grow to adulthood is an estimated 0.5% of the population (around the population of NYC, for example) End of free media Save for the aforementioned no tolerance anti thought crime laws, expect the same to happen on the internet and the TV. Everyday, after you come back home after a hard day killing the undesireables, you turn on the TV and watch the same 3 programs on an infinity loop. If you wanna use the computer, remember that all websites had been put under Google, Amazon or Facebook rule (assuming if these companies ever existed or similar ones replaced them), and around only 20 sites exist and all of them are big on pro-state propaganda as North Korea. Modern CCP doesn't even describe it. It will resemble North Korean internet, where not a single trace of anti-truth can exist, in general. Video Games will all be first person shooters or political propaganda, such as WWIII or the BLM Revolution. (Anime or Weeb culture will also cease to exist because it will be considered derogatory pedophilia or disgraces against women. Yet pedophillia is actually getting legitimized in the new world, and children can be killed as easily as adults.) Healthcare of Death You have to go screen yourself for health issues daily to monthly depending on the type. Covid Screenings are daily, Mental Health Screenings are monthly, Cancer, Diabetes, cholestrol yearly scans... Failure to pass the Covid and Mental health screenings will put you to a quarantine cell to be gassed, no exceptions. Failure to pass the yearly ones will result in medication until death. These scannings are all robotic and turn out false positives in a 20-30% rate. Also, you have to be vaccinated every 6 months, these are poisonous chemicals but it doesn't matter. Also there's no such thing as a Covid vaccine because Covid doesn't exist. Who cares if you die anyway in a society like this? Surveillance State Expect LOTS and LOTS of Cameras. You might not need to know where these cameras lead to, but expect installment of surveillance cameras as a part of the law. They will be all over the streets, your television, the ceiling of your house, the fridge, your business, whatever. In truth, the images transmit into neighbor committees, mafia offices, hired enforcer offices, other assorted kill squads...just to facilitate these groups to arrest and kill you inside your house. The reasons can be you homeschooling children, you lacking a job, you lacking education, you being depressed, you worshiping god, you muttering anti-truth, you not wearing masks when you go out, you gather with with more than 4 people... But if you know less, the better. Paying the price Everything is taxed or expensive as hell in the new world. The currency used is Bitcoin, and a normal killing job will only give you 6 bitcoins per month. (There are better jobs out there giving around hundreds, but it will not be for you at least) Most necessities cost more than 18 bitcoins and food or water will cost around 0.40 bitcoins. They will tax you 1 Bitcoin a month, possibly more. Failure to comply to the tax will result in 2 warnings. Each warning, 2 days. At the end of 2 days, government enforcers will arrive to the spot and catch you to be gassed. Cashless Society Related to the point above, you no longer need cash. Cash is obsolete, and bitcoin will take its place. 1 Bitcoin is over 10000 USD. Also it will be done by Microchip. But do not expect you YOURSELF to be microchipped. You might be required to have an extra gadget in your phone or a special wristband. Anyone without the wristband or the gadget, even at home, will be murdered fast. The wristband or phone gadget is another one of those ways they watch over you; but they will be your only way of pay. You will not be able to pay or get money without this phone gadget or wristband, and again enforcers will give you 1 hour of time to get 1 before you get gassed. One of these gadgets or wristbands will cost 4 bitcoins, and phones might as well as cost 18 bitcoins for an average quality smartphone, and a high quality smartphone 30. Report Happy Neighbours Neighbors, associates or even your children and educated and programmed to report you for the slightest of issues. Failure to fulfill a certain dress code of your organization. Muttering God, Freedom, Anti-Marxism, Conspiracies, Anti Truth, or speaking it on social media or Discord. Being an emotionally unstable mess. No school or work. (School is always internet school while work is always necessary services, killings/bodyguards/snitchers or any combination of these.) Not wearing a mask when you go outside. All but one of the many reasons why you can be reported by neighbors and even your children. If they decided to report and remove you for the following reasons, some type of authority will go in and murder you in a few hours. Political Correctness Like I ALWAYS said before, in the new world, beware of what you say in the public. This includes in places like Discord or Twitter. If you ever slip out any semblances of anti truth, holocaust denial, covid denial, religious babble etc... Yeah, authorities knock your door and send you to be gassed, no exceptions. Thoughtcrime doesn't result in just a chatroom ban, authorities knock on your door and send you to be gassed. Forced Education If you think that Covid equals no education, you are wrong. Public schools do not exist as face to face tutoring and resemble database facilities. However, your children have to be homeschooled by authorities every time of the day. The subjects will be very dull, incoherent, boring and sometimes radical like some sort of anarchist or military training. However, your child is explicitly stated not to be able of leaving their PC desk during classes, for more than 20 minutes. Because the computers are cameras themselves, the images of your students will be transmitted to the teacher inside the "school." Failure to comply and the authorities will take your children and you. Same occurs if your children is homeschooled or is off from school for no reason within 6 days. This includes not having a PC to begin with; a PC costs 30 Bitcoins. Forced Labor You HAVE to go to work, no matter what. Work is a part of life, and as soon as you are in the age of 15, you must find a work. Most people will have to find one and plan one from the age of 10. This can arrange from killings, mafia, organ harvesting, bodyguards, take-out restaurants, store clerks... You HAVE to find one. Usually, if you are not one of the more privileged class, you have to go out and kill. Mercy isn't an option in these cases. No matter what the excuse is, saint or devil, you gotta kill them. The higher the body count, the greater the talent, the higher the ranks you are. This also means that you must stay fit at all costs. People who are not physically fit will not qualify, so are merciful people. The more angry, brave, obedient, and warfare-efficient you are the better. Your life is at risk, every day, but nobody cares. Some of the people will be able to not spill blood with their own hands and find a slightly better job such as being a doctor, government official, concentration camp warden or even a teacher. But don't expect this to be you. Altered lifespans Because of all the GMOs, air pollution, fixer killings, mentally ill bozos, cannibals, mafia gangs....the lifespans of people will be drastically altered. Most people will be chronically ill at the age of 50, and past the age of 45 you cannot be allotted any jobs. The fixer and killer groups will only hire people starting from as young as 10 and as old as 30. Infant mortality rate can arrange from 50% on lowest and 99% on highest, and chances to survive till adulthood is approximately 40% on average. In some places, this is below 0.5%. If you happen to survive past the age of 60, you will be exterminated instantly. This is a benefit for the government because 1. You can't find anymore jobs or unable of production 2. to reduce spreading of Covid, a non-existent illness. War on Terror No matter what, the world 2050 and beyond will not be peaceful. "Wars on Terror" will still occur. Anarchist false flags groups (similar to Black Block and ISIS) built by the government, Covid pandemic waves, reptilian UFO false flags/fear mongering, Religious terrorists...ALL of these will continue to occur and in overly insane degrees to keep you scared. Most notably, expect the Covid pandemic EVERY 4 months where the whole country will fall on lockdown for a month. All of these aren't going anywhere but to keep you terrified and depressed. Paid Fixers/Killers will be prohibited to deal with any of these terror groups for unknown reasons just because the Government has to solve them. The government catches these terrorists and releases them, if there are any terrorists. White and Black Ethnics The world will be split into two parts. A part with polyglot populations who has every possible mixed race, and others who can maintain racial purity and are more than willing to commit genocide against anyone opposed to their race. Most notably, Europe and the US will resemble Babylon. There will be countless ghettos, filled with all sorts of ethnicities crammed in pint size ghettos, with fights all over the place. As they call it "legs made of steel and clay." The fun thing is, Kill Groups or gangs will only hire the same race, and it makes you harder to find a job. The other side will be consisted of fully racially brainwashed idiots who were taught pure eugenics and inferiorities. They will be indoctrinated in a way like the Nazis, Russians, Japanese and CCP educates their offspring. It usually happens in Asian or non pro-western states such as: Japan, Both Koreas, China, Russia, Malaysia... Expect these people to be ethno-supremacist and willing to kill anyone of the opposing race. (Such as Taiwanese and Japanese will happily kill Chinese, Chinese will happily kill Indians or Japanese, Russians might want to kill Americans...the inverse is true of all things.) You can't form to rebel against the NWO or anything with these Babylonian or white law neighbors or countries. So beware. You HAVE to wake up right now. This will be a rude awakening, and if this ever happens, your life will not even matter 5 cents. The brick wall behind the curtain doesn't only have cuffs, it has spikes as well. This is your fate in society, 2050 and beyond. All these confrontations, cancelling, and isolation will be worth it if this is YOUR fate and you realize it.
Warning, long post from my mornings contemplation. See https://twitter.com/markjeffrey/status/1300175793352445952 (Mark Jeffery 30 mins) for a video explaining DeFi. This is my attempt at explaining DeFi. I’m still learning this stuff, so any corrections are welcomed. Links are provided for information, none are recommendations, nor referral links. Do your own research (DYOR) before investing :) I’ll try not to shill YFI too much... Not all platforms use the same mechanics as I describe, but I think I’ve covered the most common ones. Stable coins Crypro currency that is intended to maintain a level value. Normally with respect to USD $. Some rely on a trusted third party who has actual USD sitting in a bank account (USDT aka Tether, USDC…), others are trustless (DAI) Maker Lock collateral into the smart contract. Then DIA can be generated, and used for other things. DAI is designed to match the USD, and is completely trustless. You must have more value staked than the DAI removed (at least 150% over collateral) or you will get liquidated. BTC on ETH Bitcoin can not be directly used on the etherium chain. So, there are a number ways to make the value availble. Most involve trusting a 3rd party and the most common is wrapped BTC wBTC. Notes WETH (Wrapped ETH) is used by some contracts to use ETH (direct use of ETH is not possible in some contracts) Unlinke WBTC, WETH is trustless as evrythign is done on the etherium blockchain (I think). Lending You deposit a valuable token onto a pool on platform, someone else borrows it. They pay interest to the pool. You get a proportion of the pools interest over time. When there is high demand for a particular token, the interest rate increases dynamically. e.g. look at the interest rate model and click on the figure for https://compound.finance/markets/USDC Borrow rates increase lineally as more of the available pool is loaned. 2% at zero and 12.5% when the pool is emptied. Earnings are lower than the borrowing rates because: There is more in the pool than borrowed. The platform takes a cut. e.g. 50% of the pool is borrowed, the borrower pays 7.25%, but the lenders only get 3.38%. 3.38/0.5 = 6.76%, so about 0.5% of the interest is being taken by compound. Different pools have different interest rate functions, DAI has an inflection point to maintain a buffer https://compound.finance/markets/DAI The interest rate increases slowly to 4% until 75% of the available pool is loaned out. Then it’s much more expensive to borrow e.g. 16% APR at 90% utilisation. When lending a single token into a single pool, you should always get the (slightly ?) more of same token back. How lending works You deposit ETH, you are given a token back as proof of participation in the pool (cETH for comound.finance). The exchange rate for cETH to ETH is NOT fixed. Rather is changes over time. As the ETH interest is paid into the pool the cETH becomes more valuable compared to the initial deposit. e.g. you deposit 10 ETH, and get 499.52 cETH. In a months time, you repay the 499.2 cETH cETH and get 10.1 ETH back. You have just gained 1%. Taxes In many jurisdictions, converting ETH to cETH would be classed as a taxable event (DYOR ! ) Lego Bricks The cETH represents your ETH, so it has value. This means it can be used for other things... Lego bricks is taken to mean that all these things fit together and you can sue them in different ways. How borrowing works You need to be over colarteralised to borrow from most platforms. So, if you deposit 10.0 ETH into a smart contract, you (currently) have $4,000 of collateral to work with. The platform may then let you borrow a % of your collateral in other tokens. So, you can borrow $2,000 of USDC, to buy more 5 ETH. Then when ETH price goes up you sell $2100 back to USDC and repay the interest. Now you have 10.x ETH. This is a form of Leverage, when the price goes up, you win. However, if the ETH price goes down, you risk being Liquidated. This means part of your collateral will be sold at the (lower) market price to repay your loan. There will likely be a penalty for you. (e.g. @ ETH = $300, 7.33 of your ETH is sold for $2,400, your USDC loan is repaid, and you keep the remaining 2.67 ETH and the 5 ETH you purchased. Shorting Deposit $8,000 collateral, Borrow 10 ETH and sell for $400 each. If the price drops to $380, buy 10.1 ETH and repay the loan and interest. You have just made $162 profit. However, if the price goes up you will still need to buy 10.1 ETH. Flash Loans A technomage creates a single transaction that borrows lots of money. Then within the same single ~13 second block uses it to do lots of complex things to hopefully make a profit. As it’s all within a single block, collateral is not required. See https://mobile.twitter.com/nanexcool/status/1297068546023993349 for a transaction that made ~46,000 USDC profit (without collateral) If this post is introducing you to the possibilities of flash loans, you are very unlikely to ever do one in the near future. I think Aave is the most common source for flash loans. Simple farming lending: Simply put you token in which ever platform offers the largest interest rate. Moving to the best option costs gas (and attention). Complex lending farming Some platforms offer tokens in return for using a platform, so simple APR comparisons aren’t sufficient. If the additional platform token has high value it can distort the market. E.g. when COMP was initially offered, it was profitable to:
Place collateral on compound.finance
Borrow BAT at 30%
Lend the BAT back to the same platform at 15%
Collect the COMP accrued due to interest paid and interest earned.
Sell the COMP on the open market.
This technique was made less favourable by compound changing the distribution model so smaller pools (like BAT) couldn’t be exploited in this way. DEX Decentralised exchanges range from ones that operate with depositing assets, trading with an order book and then withdrawing, to simple interfaces that allow you to swap tokens. of the latter, the most popular is uniswap. Liquidity provision The swap based DEX’s rely on liquidity providers (LP). Here you deposit equal values of two tokens e.g. USDC and ETH. Then any time someone wants to swap USDC for ETH on the exchange, they add USDC and remove ETH from the pool. Each time someone does a swap, they pay a fee to the liquidity pool and you get a share. Impairment loss However, if the price of one asset goes up, the pool with stabilise to have less of it. So you see an overall increase, but not as much as if you had just hold’ed. See https://twitter.com/ChainLinkGod/status/1270046868932661248 for an example. Hopefully, the fees accrued are greater than the losses. https://twitter.com/Tetranode/status/1300326676451057664/photo/1 Stable coin pairs If you restrict yourself to similar things (e.g. USD stable coins, or different versions of BTC on Ethereum), then the impairment loss is much reduced. Curve.finance focuses on such like for like pools and allows multiple tokens in a single pool. Complex farming liquidity pools Taking advantage of governance token rewards for using certain exchanges / pools. This can be done to boot strap liquidity and / or allow a decentralisation of the governance of the DEX. The tokes received have value because of expected future income, or governance rights (which may be exploited for future income) Yearn Yearn is a group of smart farmer protocols that allow pooling to reduce gas costs and benefit from smart developers / contracts. The simplest EARN take tokens / stable coins and place them in the highest yielding platform for that token. https://yearn.finance/earn The yCRV vault provides USD stable coin liquidity within curve for trading fees, but also lending fees via Yearn pools for each stable coin (oh and it gets CRV governance tokens…). Other vaults use more complex strategies. The collateral is used to generate stable coins that then generate income from interest rates, Liquidity provision fees, and accrual of governance tokens. Some governance tokens are sold, others are used to optimise the rewards from other platforms. For example, see this video on the Link Vault (Mark Jeffrey 13 mins). https://twitter.com/markjeffrey/status/1300175793352445952 I expect the ETH vault may be similar, but may include Maker to generate the stable coins (rather than borrowing on Aave). This video is a good intro on curve / yearn products (DeFIDad 31 mins) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yP-4pJpKbRU All of these steps can be done by yourself, however, gas costs would be significant unless you have a large amount invested. Yearn, and vaults pay fees to the YFI protocol. YFI YFI is the token for yearn. There are only 30,000 issued. So, you can not earn them, you can: 1) Stake them for governance rewards 2) place in a yYFI vauly to gain more FYI 3) Use them as long term Ventrue capital funds within a DAO (coming soon (tm) ). YFII, YVFV etc. Forks of the YFI with different tokens / fees. YAM, Sushi, YFII, etc. To be completed… Synthetix To be completed... Finally: This is not financial advice. There are multiple risks which get larger as more moving parts are added. Errors and omissions expected. Do you own research. Comments and corrections welcomed
Unpopular opinion - the economy has to become dynamic in order for it to have any longevity (and other musings on the progression)
Ain't no one gonna read this but here it goes! The issue of progression has recently been gaining some traction in the community with Klean and DeadlySlob covering this topic recently. Now any solution to this has an inherent issue associated with it - it'll be uncomfortable to someone. Whatever is done, it'll negatively affect someone, just by the fact of change alone. You cannot make something better by not changing anything. So anything you do or don't do, you will alienate a portion of your playerbase. Early/Mid-game vs Late game. Early and mid game is lauded, late game is considered boring. But why? For startes, firefights last longer, require more skill, movement, tactics and outsmarting your opponent. You value your life, you feel respect even for the shittiest of bullets. You have a feeling that the kill is earned. Guns have tons of recoil so you need to pick your shots. It's... I know it's illegal... but it's fun. Late game however is plagued with a number of issues. Gear gets dominated by very similar loadouts that cover approx 10% of the gear in the game. There's nowhere to progress as you've reached the ceiling. The excitement from killing a kitted player diminishes as time goes as the economy saturates. People start being picky with their loot and only the good stuff brings any sort of satisfaction. The hideout provides a steady, predictable stream of income. You let it run long enough it becomes a mindless PVP battleground. Side note - the black and white fallacy of the makeup of the community. Casuals vs hardcores. Rats vs Chads. Whenever a discussion pops up this dichotomy is always present. "Feature X hurts casuals but doesn't bother hardcore gamers playing 8h a day". No. Like anything in life the population of EFT is subject to the bellcurve distribution. There are hardcore sweaties grinding out the kappa within a week and there are also sunday gamers. Then there's everything else in between. Let's keep that in mind. You don't need to be a streamer or play the game as a full time job to make money. We have a discord for 30+ yr old gamers with families and all of us were swimming in roubles and gear after 3 months of the past wipe. Sure it takes us longer than streamers, but still. The meta Taking weapons as an example. Different items have different stats (recoil, ergonomics, etc), some are obviously better than others which obviously makes them more sought after. There are also different ammo types for every caliber. Then lastly we come to the guns which directly tie into the first point, by their base stats and how much those can be brought down/up by attachments. If you have a plethora of items that have different stats, there's sure to be an optimal loadout. If that optimal loadout is always available at an attainable price to the point where you can run it consistently, then there's really no reason to run anything less. This is the meta and at the moment it's basically a synonym for best in slot. Appealing to a greater good such as gameplay variety is in vain because people will do everything to put themselves in the best possible position. If that means running whatever flavor of meta weapon that is - VAL, M4, FAL alongside top tier lvl 5 or 6 armor over and over and over and over again, so be it. We all know that's not the only way to get by in EFT, but all else being equal - top gear puts you on equal footing at minimum. Trash contextualizes treasure. A rare item is not rare if everyone is running it. It's a normal item. Gear minmaxing combined with a ceiling in progression create a situation where the game becomes stale, people get bored and we get chants for a wipe to releave the pressure. Wipes Wipes however, even at set intervals, are not the solution. Every wipe, in the absence of something fundamentally new, gives you (rapidly) diminishing returns. Doing the same quests over and over is an absolute drag. It's my 7th wipe and this time around I've really hit a brick wall with them. Now imagine doing them every 3 months. Maybe just do an inventory and trader level wipe? Yeah, that's just skipping one part of it and arriving at the same point but even quicker, considering how quickly you can make money. The endpoint being - having enough money to run anything you want all the time without the fear of getting broke. Or in the abstract, having a big enough cushion to make any blow from a bad streak become inconsequential. All of that is just a perpetuation of the same sawtooth progression. Grind, saturate, wipe, grind, saturate, wipe. Side note - persistent character vs wiped character I know there have been talks about having two characters - one persistent that's not wiped and one seasonal that is. On paper this might look like a good solution, but there are some problems. POE players would have to chip in, but I reckong, that in a way this might become a form of matchmaking - the persistent character would be a mode for "sunday" players, while the wiped one for the sweats. I mean, maybe that's the way to go, but if the game is to gave any longevity, the persistent character will eventually face the same issues as the current game, it'll just take longer to develop. Unpopular opinion - The economy is just a set of time and effort gated unlocks. There have been multiple ideas to prolong a wipe, but in my view the fundamental issue with those is that they're based off the same linear progression - start from scratch and acumulate wealth until saturation. Some of these ideas include restricting labs till level X, locking behind a quest or just disabling it for a month. The problem with these is that it's just delaying the inevitable, while also giving a direct buff to those who get there first as they'll have the place virtually to themselves. What follows is also the concept of "starting mid wipe", which essentially means that the gear disparity is so big that the further into a wipe, the more difficult it is to catch up. That effort is directly correlated with experience - the more experience you have the easier it is for you to reset or jump in midwipe. Extending a wipe potentially alleviates that by giving people more opportunity to catch up, but also pushes away from coming back/into the game if they recognize that it had passed their personal breakpoint where it's too hard / frustrating. Perpetual mid-game So out of all of that, a clearer picture emerges. We have to somehow find a solution to always have something to work for, but also not give the impression that you're up against an impenetrable wall. That means that the game needs to pivot around something colloquially known as mid game. How would we define mid-game? That's another debate, but for the sake of the argument we could define that as something in the range of:
Armor: Kirasa/6B23-1 to 6B3TM-01M or Uley chest rigs,
Ammo: 5.45 BP to BT, M855 to M856A1, 7.62 PS to TS-45, etc.
That would be the sort of mean loadout you can run on a consistent basis and you'd see the majority of the time. From the sentiment across the community, this seems to be the most enjoyable state of the game, where the sweetspot is in terms of protection and vulnerability, but allowing a lot of headroom for both variety and Solutions Now we must have to remember that there's a number of changes inbound that will alleviate some of the issues:
Armor will get more realistic hitboxes to match the actual armor plates which should flatten the armor progression curve quite a bit and make more ammo more viable.
Suppressors will get durability
Barrell overheating mechanics should alleviate some of the issues with magdumps.
But those are sill far on the horizon. The uncomfortable reality is that in order to truly balance that you have only a few choices. One is to go down the route of typical FPS tropes where every weapon type is perfectly balanced (i.e. shotguns powerfull but limited range, smg's low recoil, high ROF but weaker, dmrs powerful but high recoil and low ROF, etc). I don't think this will be ever a thing in the game. Another one is to make attachments roughly equal and just attribute the differences to the tacticool visual factor. This would be realistic in a way, but would take away from the game. The last one is to price them out. Literally. I'm of the unpopular opinion that endgame should not be a stage, it should be a state. Dynamic pricing I know I know, last time it failed spectacularly. However, that was a different flea market and the implementation was poorly thought out. Since it didn't have a pivot point to relate to it caused widespread inflation of even the most basic items and was prone to manipulation. However the concept in principal has proven itself to work - M995 was essentially priced out of existence and forced people to look for alternatives like M855A1 or M856A1 or different calibers alltogether. Even the sweaties of sweats got a bit excited when they killed someone with 3 60rounders filled with M995. See where I'm going with this? The execution was poor and poorly thought out. But how about a different implementation? Adjust the prices based on how much an item is (or is not) bought compared to other items of the same item type. Most popular items' price (of a specific category) increases, while the least popular one decreases. This could also be coupled with (or as an alternative) an additional rarity factor which would sort of specify how volatile the price is. Continuing the ammo example M995 would have the highest rarity factor and would be very prone to price increases, while the likes of M855 would be considered common and have a much more stable price. Obviously this would be subject to long term trends and would not happen overnight. But the main aim is to dynamically scale the economy to the general wealth of the playerbase around a certain pivot point which we established before as the mid-game. This would be a quite significant blow to the uberchads as they would unironically struggle to maintain a profit from their runs. And yes, some of them would still probably be able to pull this off, but remember what we said about the bell curve? It's just about making them so insignificant in the global player pool that they'd be a very rare occurance. Global item pools This idea has been floated around by Nikita some time ago but we have no ETA on this. In short - for some items, there is only a set amount that is present in circulation. For example there are only X amount of ReapIR's in the entire economy - spawns, traders, player stashes. If everyone hoards them in their stashes - thats where they'll remain. They don't spawn on maps, they're not sold on traders. Only until they're lost they get reinjected into the item pool. This idea should be reserved only for the absolute top tier OP items. Something that you'd get all giddy if found/looted and you'd contemplate taking it out. Side note, the X amount should scale to the active playerbase, which could be something like a weekly or biweekly moving average of people actively playing the game in a set period. Insurance This one is a bit controversial but also attributes to some of the in game inflation and gear recirculation. If you run a large squad, even if one of you dies, there's a high chance someone will survive and secure others' gear. And even if all of you die, something's bound to come back. This might be a bit controversial, but I think group size should have a debuff to the chance of getting your gear back the higher the bigger your squad size, for example an incremental 10% chance for each additional squadmate. Hideout adjustments Right now fuel consumption is static no matter how much stuff is going on. What if the fuel consumption rate was tied to the size of your bitcoin farm and the amount of crafting going on. Additionally hideout appliances could wear out and require maintenance, which would grant them performance debuffs like increased crafting time. Dynamic stocks. Right now stocks are predictable. You have the same amount of items at a set interval. Things like traders missing some items or not getting a restock due to broken supply lines, which can be cheekily tied into... Dynamic global events/quests Such as as getting rid of scavs on a particular location to remove the roadblock. These might be done per player or as a global event where everyone has to chip in. Summary The subject is difficult and solutions are not simple, but what I do know is that eventually Tarkov will have settle into an identity which will come with a sacrifice either at the expense of vision or mainstream popularity. Thank you for coming to my TEDTalk. I'd like to give a heartfelt thank you to the 5 people that read this wall of text.
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